Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.017203 0.019485 0.021960 0.024845 0.028117 0.031714 0.035969
2025-07-27 0.013869 0.017065 0.020831 0.025600 0.031483 0.038514 0.047570
2025-08-03 0.011645 0.015163 0.019550 0.025429 0.033117 0.042849 0.056140
2025-08-10 0.010140 0.013829 0.018646 0.025408 0.034681 0.046989 0.064630
2025-08-17 0.008846 0.012555 0.017594 0.024960 0.035485 0.050040 0.071795
2025-08-24 0.008047 0.011836 0.017172 0.025259 0.037252 0.054460 0.081173
2025-08-31 0.007252 0.011018 0.016498 0.025080 0.038244 0.057781 0.089175
2025-09-07 0.006778 0.010615 0.016368 0.025658 0.040366 0.062892 0.100279
2025-09-14 0.006038 0.009722 0.015403 0.024839 0.040218 0.064466 0.105934
2025-09-21 0.005510 0.009108 0.014804 0.024521 0.040800 0.067184 0.113605
2025-09-28 0.004961 0.008405 0.013993 0.023770 0.040581 0.068543 0.119076
2025-10-05 0.004784 0.008304 0.014154 0.024644 0.043144 0.074707 0.133269
2025-10-12 0.004559 0.008105 0.014144 0.025241 0.045316 0.080449 0.147372
2025-10-19 0.004377 0.007966 0.014223 0.026002 0.047845 0.087037 0.163645
2025-10-26 0.004067 0.007568 0.013810 0.025829 0.048648 0.090568 0.174538
2025-11-02 0.003811 0.007244 0.013497 0.025807 0.049715 0.094651 0.186821
2025-11-09 0.003520 0.006829 0.012982 0.025352 0.049905 0.097075 0.196054
2025-11-16 0.003353 0.006637 0.012867 0.025656 0.051590 0.102501 0.211754
2025-11-23 0.003141 0.006339 0.012524 0.025474 0.052283 0.106013 0.223833
2025-11-30 0.003034 0.006240 0.012562 0.026062 0.054585 0.112938 0.243669
2025-12-07 0.002783 0.005827 0.011937 0.025229 0.053856 0.113562 0.250046
2025-12-14 0.002605 0.005551 0.011571 0.024906 0.054172 0.116385 0.261453
2025-12-21 0.002400 0.005201 0.011022 0.024143 0.053469 0.116962 0.267877